Myanmar crisis in ‘freefall’ three years after coup

(Source” RFA Burmese) Myanmar’s coup and ensuing civil war – now entering its fourth year. More than 2.6 million people have been displaced, the United Nations says, and at least 4,423 civilians have been killed since the coup – nearly doubling the 2,826 deaths during the first two years, according to Thailand’s Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (Burma).

Some 459 of the dead were minors, up from 265 at the end of February last year, the group said, and 159 of them were under the age of 10.

Earlier this week, the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk warned that Myanmar’s human rights crisis is now in “freefall,” noting that the abuses had “deteriorated even further” in recent months as the military has grown desperate amid a series of battlefield defeats.

Turning point?

Those rebel advances have put the military on its heels and suggest that the conflict may be at a turning point. 

Since the end of October, the Three Brotherhood Alliance – a coalition of three ethnic armies in Shan and Rakhine states – has made rapid advances in the western and northern parts of the country, seizing control of more than 200 military camps, capturing 15 cities and prompting the surrender of about 4,000 junta troops, including a number of officers.

In November, junta chief Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing said the rebel offensive could “break the country into pieces.”

The success of “Operation 1027,” named for its Oct. 27 start date, is presenting “an existential threat” to the military, said Jason Tower, the Burma country director at the Washington-based U.S. Institute of Peace.

The defeats and large-scale surrenders of hundreds of troops at a time have led the military to “lose any legitimacy that it might have ever had within the ranks of its own people,” Tower said.

The junta has responded with devastating raids on villages that include the use of airstrikes and heavy artillery. The U.N. Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, or OHCHR, said that more than 554 civilians have been killed since October alone.

The military also continued to use arson in raids on villages and towns during its third year in power. Junta troops have torched nearly 79,000 houses across the country, according to Data for Myanmar, an independent research firm that tracks the impact of conflict on civilians.

“Pitched battles between the military and armed opposition groups have resulted in mass displacement and civilian casualties,” the U.N.’s Turk said in a statement ahead of the third anniversary of the takeover. “As the military have suffered setback after setback on the battlefield, they have lashed out, launching waves of indiscriminate aerial bombardments and artillery strikes.”

No criticism allowed

As in the case of Phyo Phyo Aung and her family, the junta has also stepped up its response to any criticism of its rule.

Since the 2021 coup, junta authorities have arrested nearly 26,000 people on political grounds – of whom almost 20,000 remain in detention, where they face torture and few legal protections. In several cases where activists have evaded arrest, the military has detained relatives to use as leverage.

The OHCHR says at least 1,576 people have died in military custody over the past three years.

The military regime failed to hold elections in 2023 as planned as its control of the country slipped. Opponents had dismissed the planned election as a sham because it appeared likely to exclude parties ousted from power by the coup.

A fifth extension of emergency rule announced Wednesday would postpone the election. Myanmar’s Constitution mandates must be held within six months after a state of emergency is lifted.

In the meantime, experts say, junta mismanagement has decimated the economy, the value of the kyat has plummeted, and foreign investors have fled the country. 

In April, the junta announced that it had increased military spending to 5.6 trillion kyats (US$2.7 billion), or more than one-quarter of the 20 trillion kyats (US$9.5 billion) allocated to the overall budget, for the 2023-2024 fiscal year, up from 3.7 trillion kyats (US$1.7 billion) a year earlier.

By comparison, 2 trillion kyats were allocated for education (US$953 million) and just over 800 billion kyats (US$381 million) for health, while around 680 billion kyats (US$324 million) were earmarked for electricity, despite Myanmar’s power grid suffering regular power cuts and calls by the junta for the public to save energy and fuel.

Turk, the U.N. rights czar, urged member states to consider imposing further targeted sanctions on the military to “constrain their ability to commit serious violations and disregard international law,” by limiting access to weapons, jet fuel, and foreign currency.

To that end, on Wednesday the U.S. Treasury announced sanctions against four individuals and two entities it said are linked to the military regime, to add to its growing list, while the Australian government imposed additional sanctions on two banks it said enabled the junta’s activities and three firms that supply it with jet fuel.